Super Bowl 44 Total Betting

Super Bowl 44:  Gamblers are Right to Expect a Shoot-Out But…

Game-day:  2/7/2010

Kick-off:  6:20 pm EST

By Aidan Yarborough

Everybody expects a shoot-out in Super Bowl 44.  According to almost every football fan on the planet, the grass in the end zones will be covered in cleat marks because of all of the stepping inside of the pylons.  It’s going to be the NFL’s version of the O.K. Corral with Drew Brees as Wyatt Earp and Peyton Manning as Ike Clanton.

Okay, Colts’ fans…yeah, I get it.  Why does Brees have to be Clanton?

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In any case, there should be a lot of points scored.  But, there are points and then there are, imagine me widening the distance between my open palms…POINTS!

42 is a lot of points, okay?  56, which is where the total is right now in the sportsbook, or 57, or possibly, 58?  Them there aren’t points.  Them there are POINTS!

Do I believe that the total points scored in the Super Bowl will be 56 or more?  No, I don’t.  Sorry to burst the “over” bubble, but I just don’t.

Here’s why.

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Bend But Don’t Break - - There’s a “coupled with” to this, but let’s discuss the Colts’ defensive philosophy first.  Bend but don’t break means that the Colts won’t take chances on defense.  The Colts’ entire game plan on D will be to force the Saints into 3rd and long.  They will try to keep the Saints wide-outs, the Saints running backs, and Jeremy “Sister Golden Hair” Shockey from getting to the first-down marker.

But if they can’t do that, they will try to force the Saints into field goals.  Check out these stats on the Colts’ D:

Averaged yards allowed:  339.2 per game
Average points allowed:  19.2 per game.

You can move the ball like nobody’s business against Indy, but at the end of the day, you’re going to have to settle for field goals against their defense.  Sure, you can get that touchdown, but then what will the Colts’ D do?   4 field goals, my friends.  They’ll hold you to 4 field goals.  Now, here comes the “coupled with”.

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Bend but don’t break coupled with…
The Saints’ Rushing Game - - The Saints average 132.2 yards per game on the ground.  They’re ranked 6th in that category.  The Colts allow 126.5 yards per game on the ground to be rushed against them.  They’re ranked 24th in that category.

See where this is going?  Saint’s coach Sean Payton is a smart man.  He knows that the Colts will do whatever it takes to prevent the long ball.  So, he’ll instruct Mr. Brees to hand the ball off to Pierre Thomas, who averages 5.6 yards per carry, and Reggie Bush, who averages 5.4 yards per carry.

Unless the Colts put an extra man in the box, thereby foregoing their bend but don’t break philosophy, the Saints will continue to rush the ball.

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The Saints’ are going to run, run, run in this game.  Running eats up clock.  Running keeps Peyton Manning on the sidelines.

So, in conclusion, the Colts’ bend but don’t break philosophy coupled with the Saints’ rushing game will lead to the game going under the total of 56 points.

But, wait, there’s more!

This game should go under.  Check out the following stats:

Colts’ games went over 9 times and under 7 times during the regular season but the over/under was 3 and 3 in games on grass.  The Super Bowl will be played on a grass field.

Saints’ games went over 7 times and under 9 times during the regular season.

Now, for a key trend regarding each team - -

The Under is 5 and 1 in the Saints last 6 games following an ATS loss.

The Under is 7 and 3 in the Colts last 10 playoff games.

Dudes and dudettes, the Super Bowl is going under.  Mark my words, it’s going under.

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