NFL: Falcons and Giants Meet with Tons at Stake

Game-day:  11/22/2009
 
Kick-off:  1:00 pm EST

NFL Week 11 Odds & picks from Pointspread.com
 
The Atlanta Falcons Travel to New York to take on the Giants in a game with a lot of meaning.  The Falcons and Giants are both 5 and 4 on the season and believe that they can make the playoffs.
 
With the New Orleans Saints at 9 and 0, the Falcons only hope of making the playoffs is to get a wildcard berth.  That means that Atlanta must win games within the NFC Conference.  They already blew a game last week against the Carolina Panthers making this week’s game against the New York Giants that much more important.  Quarterback Matt Ryan hasn’t approached a 90 QB rating in five straight games and had a 54.7 rating in the Falcons’ last game against the Panthers.
 
The Giants are trying to end a four game losing streak.  During the streak, not only have the Giants lost straight-up but they haven’t covered a spread in the NFL sportsbook.  There is some talk that Eli Manning, who started the season playing about as well as any quarterback in the league, just isn’t able to rally this Giants’ team and get them to step it up enough to make the playoffs.  The Giants are a game behind the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East Division and must beat the Falcons in order to put themselves back into the playoff hunt.
 
Below are the NFL odds for this game:
 
Atlanta Falcons                                          +6 ½ -110              +235                            O 45 ½ -110
 
New York Giants                                          -6 ½ -110              -275                            U 45 ½ -110

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Here are a few online betting trends for this game.
 
The Atlanta Falcons are 9 and 2 against the spread in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.
 
The New York Giants are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.
 
The Atlanta Falcons are 5 and 2 against the spread in their last 7 games versus an opponent from the NFC Conference.
 
Now, let’s take a look at how the offenses and defenses matchup.

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Falcons’ Offense vs. Giants’ Defense:

The Falcons offense can be scary good at times, but there is a misunderstanding among most NFL fans.  Many believe, understandably based on the press given to him, that quarterback Matt Ryan is already one of the best in the league.
 
This just isn’t true.  In 2009, with a much better receiver than he has ever had in tight-end Tony Gonzalez, Ryan has been downright pathetic at times.  He’s thrown 14 touchdowns and 12 picks.  His completion percentage is 59.7.  His quarterback rating now stands at 78.8. 
 
The Falcons consequently have lost 3 out of their last 4 games and now, and this is a huge issue, running back Michael Turner is doubtful to play in this game.
 
The Giants’ D is ranked #1 in the league and some bettors are still trying to figure out why.  The G-Men have lost four games in a row and have given up a total of 133 points in those four games.  That’s pretty awful and no ranking should try to convince bettors otherwise.
 
Luckily for the Giants they play a team that is having some serious offensive issues.
 
Falcons’ Defense vs. Giants’ Offense:
 
The Falcons’ defense can be exploited.  Ranked 25th in the league, Atlanta’s D has serious issues against the pass.  They give up roughly 241 yards per game through the air and teams are putting up over 21 points a game against them.
 
Atlanta’s cornerbacks no doubt will be tested by Eli Manning and his receivers.  Manning, for all of his supposed issues, still has an 89.5 QB rating and has thrown 15 touchdowns as opposed to 8 picks.  His completion percentage, 60.0, isn’t terrible and he played about as well as he could in the Giants’ last game against the San Diego Chargers. Manning’s top target is former USC wide out Steve Smith.  Hopefully for the Giants, Smith and Manning used their bye week to improve their timing.
 
The Giants can also run the ball, another weak point for the Atlanta defense.  The Falcons give up over 130 yards per game on the ground on average.  Expect the Giants to exploit that with Brandon Jacobs as Ahmad Bradshaw may or may not play this Sunday.
 
The Best NFL Bet Is...
 
On the New York Giants at -6 ½.  The G-Men are too good of a team to lose 5 games in a row.  They also face the Falcons after their bye week.
 
Expect Eli Manning to be on point with his wide receivers and Brandon Jacobs to rush over 100 yards in this game.  If that happens, then the G-Men will win this game easily.
 
Another thing to take into account is that the fact that once behind, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan tends to force things.  He makes mistakes when he does that.  So, the Giants will do what they can to get a lead, even a 3 point lead, and then goad Ryan into bad throws.
 
Anyway a gambler looks at it, the Giants should cover the 6 ½ point spread in this game.

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